Dubai recorded approximately 34,500 residential sales in Q3 2026, down 4% quarter on quarter and 38% year on year, according to Savills. Cushman & Wakefield Core separately reported off-plan volumes down 71% year on year, secondary-market volumes down 33%, and residential rents down 7%. Oplus International Realty examines the slowdown, why the research series differ, and what the outlook means for buyers.
Dubai Property Market Q3 2026: Key Figures
| Indicator | Q3 2026 result | Definition and source |
|---|---|---|
| Residential sales | Approximately 34,500 | Savills, residential transactions |
| Residential sales value | AED 70.8 billion | Savills, residential transacted value |
| Change in total residential sales | −4% QoQ; −38% YoY | Savills, residential transaction counts |
| Off-plan share of sales by number | 72% | Savills, Q3 residential transactions |
| Off-plan transaction change | −71% YoY | Cushman & Wakefield Core, separate series |
| Secondary-market transaction change | −33% YoY | Cushman & Wakefield Core, separate series |
| New-launch activity change | −67% reported; comparison base unspecified in published summary | Cushman & Wakefield Core |
| City-wide sales price | AED 1,847/sq ft | Cushman & Wakefield Core, research price series |
| City-wide sales price change | Less than −1% QoQ; approximately −1% YoY | Cushman & Wakefield Core |
| City-wide average annual rent | AED 111/sq ft | Cushman & Wakefield Core, across property classes |
| City-wide rent change | −4.5% QoQ; −7% YoY | Cushman & Wakefield Core |
| Homes delivered in Q3 | 12,932 | Cushman & Wakefield Core, residential completions |
Q3 covers 1 July–30 September 2026. These are figures from named research series, not a newly calculated total from Dubai Land Department (DLD) raw records. Transaction counts, listing prices and research price indices must not be treated as interchangeable.
The quarter was marked by a sharp annual decline in transaction activity, rather than just a small quarterly dip. Average prices moved less than deal volumes, and selected established communities held up better than the wider market. Those positive exceptions matter, but they cannot erase the scale of the annual sales slowdown.
Sales Fell Sharply Year on Year, Even as Ready Homes Gained Share
Savills reported roughly 35,800 residential transactions in Q2 and 34,500 in Q3, a quarterly decrease it rounded to 4%. More importantly for the full-year picture, its Q3 total was 38% below Q3 2025. Residential sales value fell to AED 70.8 billion, down 14% quarter on quarter and 46% year on year in Savills’ series. The annual comparison reveals a much larger change than the quarterly headline alone.
Off-plan transactions remained the larger category, making up 72% of Q3 sales by count, compared with 77% in Q2 in Savills’ series. The off-plan share therefore fell by five percentage points while the ready-home share rose from 23% to 28%. This does not establish that completed properties became more expensive or that the entire off-plan market lost value; it describes the changing mix of transactions.
Savills also found stronger ready-market transaction value, even as off-plan transaction value declined. That points to uneven demand, not a uniform collapse or a uniform recovery. For end-users, the rising ready-home share means a larger proportion of activity involved homes that can be inspected and occupied immediately.
How severe was the off-plan slowdown?
Cushman & Wakefield Core reported off-plan transactions falling 71% year on year in Q3 2026, while secondary-market transaction volumes declined 33% year on year in its research series. It connected the off-plan contraction to fewer launches and more cautious investor sentiment, while describing the secondary market as comparatively better supported by end-users.
These are severe annual declines and materially change the interpretation of the quarter. They should not, however, be spliced into Savills’ totals or used to calculate an implied market-wide percentage: the two firms report different transaction universes and have not published a directly reconciled count in the sources reviewed here. Savills’ own overall residential volume was down 38% year on year. Readers should retain both attributed findings and the methodological distinction.
Why published transaction totals differ
DLD maintains a public transaction-data service with filters for property type, usage and registration. Private research publishers apply their own coverage and classifications to those records. As a result, a broader transaction total or a combined ready/off-plan figure from another publisher should not be used to replace Savills’ residential-only series without checking inclusion rules and extraction dates. The official data portal is the starting point for a like-for-like audit, but its Q3 filtered dataset was not independently re-exported for this report.
Sale Prices: Headline Averages and Comparable Homes Tell Different Stories
Cushman & Wakefield Core placed its Q3 city-wide sales price measure at AED 1,847 per square foot, less than 1% below Q2 and around 1% below Q3 2025. It also reported that the series stood roughly 5% under its February 2026 peak.
Savills separately recorded AED 1,817 per square foot for apartments and AED 1,523 for villas and townhouses in its Q3 transaction-mix averages. Their quarterly changes were −4.8% and −3.3%, respectively. Savills cautioned that matched-property movements were less pronounced than those averages, because the types and price points of homes sold had changed. Its matched-property figures were −1.7% QoQ and −0.5% YoY for apartments, and 0.0% QoQ and +1.8% YoY for villas/townhouses. This qualified price resilience does not contradict the much sharper contraction in transaction activity.
The figures are not competing measurements of the same universe. They cannot be averaged together into a Dubai-wide market growth figure. A buyer evaluating a particular unit should prioritise recent transactions in the same building or community, consistent size measures, floor and view, property condition and whether the comparables are ready or off-plan.
Apartment Prices by Community
The following data comes from Cushman & Wakefield Core’s Q3 submarket research, using the same source and period across locations.
| Apartment community | Q3 average sale price (AED/sq ft) | YoY change | QoQ change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Jumeirah | 3,163 | −6% | −1% |
| Dubai Hills | 2,323 | −3% | −2% |
| Dubai Marina | 2,010 | −2% | +3% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) | 1,346 | −2% | −2% |
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Core, Q3 2026 apartment submarket series (REIDIN). These are research averages, not advertised portal asking prices.
A quarterly increase in Dubai Marina apartments alongside an annual decline illustrates the danger of describing the market as simply rising or falling. Different observation windows can point in opposite directions without contradicting each other.
The lower average price per square foot in JVC compared with Palm Jumeirah is not by itself a value verdict. Building quality, annual service charges, unit density, rental competition and transport access remain relevant. Buyers comparing a master-planned community with both apartment and villa stock can use Oplus’s Dubai Hills Estate buyer guide for a more property-specific framework.
Villa Prices Did Not Follow the Apartment Market
Cushman & Wakefield Core’s villa submarket series showed positive annual movement in some established communities and negative movement in others.
| Villa community | Q3 average sale price (AED/sq ft) | YoY change | QoQ change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Jumeirah | 6,610 | +9% | +2% |
| Emirates Hills | 3,713 | +19% | +4% |
| Dubai Hills | 2,533 | −7% | −3% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) | 1,348 | +13% | +3% |
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Core, Q3 2026 villa submarket series (REIDIN).
Palm Jumeirah apartments fell 6% year on year in this series while Palm villas rose 9%—a 15-percentage-point gap between the annual change rates of two different property types in the same location. JVC displayed another 15-point gap: apartments down 2%, villas up 13%. Neither difference measures the appreciation of an individual property.
These comparisons explain why an island-wide or neighbourhood-wide investment verdict is too broad. Even within villas, layout, plot position, renovation, condition and scarcity can shift the relevant comparison set. Oplus’s earlier Dubai villa price analysis provides longer-cycle context; its figures refer to a different observation period and should not be substituted for Q3 data.
Rental Prices Eased, While Leasing Activity Recovered
Cushman & Wakefield Core reported city-wide average rents down 4.5% from Q2 and 7% from Q3 2025. Its underlying annualised average stood at AED 111 per square foot across the property classes covered in its research.
The apartment and villa trends differed:
| Community / property type | Annual rent (AED/sq ft) | YoY change | QoQ change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Marina apartments | 113 | −15% | −7% |
| Downtown Dubai apartments | 162 | −14% | −5% |
| Dubai Hills apartments | 148 | −12% | −8% |
| JVC apartments | 98 | −10% | −5% |
| Palm Jumeirah villas | 226 | +12% | −1% |
| Emirates Hills villas | 99 | −19% | −8% |
| Dubai Hills villas | 109 | −10% | −4% |
| JVC villas | 96 | +4% | +1% |
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Core, Q3 2026 rental submarket series. Rent is annualised AED per square foot, not a monthly rent and not a gross rental yield.
A decline in average rents can coexist with more leasing activity. Cushman & Wakefield Core reported that new rental contracts rose 32% quarter on quarter and renewals rose 8% in its dataset. Savills separately recorded about 181,900 rental transactions in Q3, against 156,200 in Q2, a rise of approximately 16%. These are source-specific measures: the Savills total should not be combined with Cushman & Wakefield Core’s new-contract growth rate as though the denominators were identical.
The research attributes stronger third-quarter leasing partly to relocations ahead of the school year, but this is an interpretation, not proof that seasonality caused every additional contract. For landlords, the more relevant test is the rent achievable for a comparable unit today, together with vacancy, service charges and maintenance costs—not an advertised area-wide yield.
New Launch Activity Fell Sharply as Completions Continued
Cushman & Wakefield Core reported that new project launch activity fell 67%. Its published Q3 summary and two-page report do not specify the comparison baseline for that percentage, so it must not be labelled a quarterly or annual decline without further confirmation. Savills separately estimated approximately 5,000 units launched during Q3 2026 and a 64% fall in the January–September launch total against the same nine months of 2025. These measures are not interchangeable: one is an unspecified comparison in one research series, and the other is a year-to-date comparison in another.
A drop in launches can reduce the flow of newly marketed off-plan stock without stopping construction on projects already underway. It may also change the mix of transactions and advertised products, affecting headline averages.
Cushman & Wakefield Core reported 12,932 completed homes in Q3 and approximately 40,400 completions during the first nine months of 2026. It expected a further 10,500 units in Q4, projecting about 50,900 completions for the full year. Its research identified approximately 60,000 units scheduled for 2027, while acknowledging that contractor capacity and supply-chain issues could shift handovers.
Savills described a longer pipeline of more than 525,000 units scheduled through 2030, with the bulk concentrated in later years. This is a timetable of proposed supply, not a guarantee that all units will be delivered on schedule. Actual completion rates and area-level absorption are separate questions.
The near-term impact is uneven. A new apartment development completing beside several similar towers can create more competition for tenants and resales, while a completed villa with scarce characteristics may face a different buyer pool. Fewer launches today also do not remove the supply that is already under construction.
The AED 10 Million-Plus Market Was Not Immune
Savills reported 669 residential transactions above AED 10 million in Q3, down from 871 in Q2, a decline of about 23%. Its prime-price series recorded year-on-year increases of 4.0% for prime apartments and 3.6% for prime villas and townhouses.
This is another example of prices and transaction counts answering different questions. Fewer expensive transactions do not prove that every premium home became cheaper; nor do positive annual prime prices establish easy resale conditions. The size of the buyer pool and the quality of true comparables matter most for an individual high-value asset.
What Q3 Means for Buyers, Landlords and Off-Plan Investors
Ready-home buyers: Compare recent sales of completed, similar homes. Check the transaction date, building condition, current service charges and real occupancy or tenancy position. A wider ready-home share gives more transaction evidence, but does not guarantee a discount on the particular unit you want.
Off-plan investors: Verify developer records, contractual payment milestones, handover assumptions, escrow and registration details through the relevant official channels. Model how many competing units could reach the market at the same time, and do not treat a published launch price as a realised resale value. Oplus’s Dubai off-plan market review for 2025 is useful historical context, not a replacement for current project records.
Rental investors: Calculate net income using a unit’s achievable rent, actual service charges, maintenance, vacancy assumptions, management and buying costs. The rent-per-square-foot figures above are not a ready-made return forecast and should not be combined with unrelated asking prices to manufacture a yield.
Tenants and end-users: Compare completed neighbourhood infrastructure, commute, school access and building management alongside the lease or purchase cost. The Dubai area guides offer community-level context beyond the quarter’s price tables.
Dubai Property Market Outlook After Q3 2026
The near-term outlook is cautious rather than uniformly positive. Cushman & Wakefield Core expects sales prices to remain under pressure as transaction volumes stay subdued, buyer and seller expectations diverge and new supply enters the market. It also expects further rental softening as delivered homes increase tenants’ choice. These are the research firm’s forecasts, not confirmed future price or rental declines.
The outlook is not one-sided. Savills expects delayed completions and reduced launches to ease immediate supply pressure, while its matched-property data showed less repricing than transaction-mix averages suggested. CBRE’s 3 November 2026 UAE review described Dubai’s residential market as entering a period of normalisation amid rising supply. The reports therefore disagree in emphasis more than they provide a uniform numerical forecast: Cushman highlights the risk of further pressure; Savills highlights near-term supply relief and the relative resilience of comparable properties.
The next signals are actual handovers, like-for-like resale prices, new and renewed rents, and the share of transactions involving completed homes. Planned supply cannot be assessed without delivery timing and the depth of end-user demand within each district.
For earlier-year coverage, see the Oplus market reports archive, which groups dated reports by period. Q3 should remain a standalone archive entry rather than overwrite earlier reporting. Prior evergreen market commentary and live Dubai listing pages require separate accuracy checks before they are recommended as decision-making references.
Discuss a Dubai Property Decision with Oplus
If you are comparing a ready property with an off-plan purchase, speak to an Oplus property adviser about comparable closed sales, local supply, operating costs and the risks of weaker resale demand before making a decision.
Written by: Oplus International Realty Editorial Team
This article is for information only and is not financial or legal advice. Confirm current rules and property records with the relevant authority before acting.
This article is editorial market analysis, not a property listing or an offer to sell.
Sources
- Savills — Dubai Residential Market Report, Q3 2026, 12 October 2026. https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/395342-0
- Cushman & Wakefield Core — MarketBeat: Residential Q3 2026, Dubai, 29 October 2026. https://www.cushwake.ae/en/marketbeats/marketbeat-residential-q3-2026-dubai-uae
- CBRE — UAE Real Estate Market Review Q3 2026, 3 November 2026. https://www.cbre.ae/insights/figures/uae-real-estate-market-review-q3-2026
- Dubai Land Department — Real Estate Data (official transaction search; checked 9 November 2026). https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/open-data/real-estate-data/
